Value Discipline

A celebration of value thinking, a salute to common sense and straightforward logic. I hope to explore the logic of Wall Street recommendations in a value context. Many of these ideas are employed in my portfolios and those of my family, friends, and clients. Please bear in mind that ALL ideas, opinions, and/or forecasts are for informational or entertainment value ONLY and should NOT be construed as a recommendation to invest, trade, or speculate in the stock market.

Sunday, December 11, 2005

GDP growth with and without mortgage extraction

"Calculated Risk," has a fascinating chart which demonstrates the enormous effect that mortgage refis have had in holding up GDP. The impact of the bursting of the housing bubble would greatly diminish expected growth rates due to the direct effect on a loss in housing and construction related employment, and indirectly on personal consumption expenditures.

See also: LA Times

: Arizona Daily Star

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Name: Rick

Location: Oakville, Ontario, Canada

I have been a portfolio manager of institutional portfolios for 30 years. My current interests focus on separately managed accounts for individuals as well as portfolio selection for unit investment trusts. I am a Chartered Financial Analyst as well as a Certified Financial Planner. My greatest joy outside of my family is training young people to become better research analysts, portfolio managers and financial planners.

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